Executive Summary

Q4 delivered “our best quarter ever,” with revenue up 29% year over year to $148.8M, gross profit up 90% to $63.9M (margin 43%), and the best-ever gross loss ratio at 63% .
Net loss improved to $(30.0)M (EPS $(0.42)) from $(42.4)M (EPS $(0.61)) a year ago; adjusted EBITDA improved to $(23.8)M from $(28.9)M; adjusted free cash flow was +$26.5M, marking the company’s first full year of positive Adj. FCF ($47.6M) .
KPIs: In-Force Premium (IFP) rose 26% to $943.7M, customers +20% to 2.43M, premium per customer +5% to $388; ADR ticked down to 86% due to targeted homeowners non-renewals .
2025 outlook: year-end IFP $1.203–$1.208B, revenue $655–$657M, adj. EBITDA loss $(140)–$(135)M; Q1 2025 revenue $143–$145M and adj. EBITDA loss $(49)–$(46)M; both include an estimated ~$20M adverse adj. EBITDA impact from California wildfires (gross loss ~$45M) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Best-ever underwriting quarter: gross loss ratio improved to 63% (vs. 77% LY and 73% in Q3), with favorable prior period development and only ~1 pt CAT impact; TTM gross loss ratio reached 73% (–12 pts YoY, –4 pts QoQ) .
Strong growth with operating leverage: revenue +29% to $148.8M; gross profit +90% to $63.9M (margin +14 pts to 43%); adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $(23.8)M despite sharply higher growth spend .
Positive cash generation: Adj. FCF +$26.5M in Q4 and +$47.6M for FY24; management: “Q4 delivered an adjusted free cash flow of $27 million, our strongest ever… 2024 overall was cash flow positive” .
Management quote: “Across the full gamut of our KPIs, the fourth quarter was comfortably our best quarter ever… gross profit doubled… EBITDA positive excluding growth spend for the first time” .

What Went Wrong

Sales & marketing stepped up materially: total operating expense ex-LAE rose 38% YoY to $123.9M, driven by growth spend of $36.0M (vs. $13.4M in Q4’23), pressuring EBITDA .
ADR dipped to 86% (–1 pt YoY) due to targeted non-renewals of less profitable homeowners policies (management estimates ~3 pts ADR impact from these actions), though done to improve risk/returns .
Headwinds ahead: management expects ~$45M gross losses and ~$20M adj. EBITDA headwind in Q1’25 from California wildfires, despite diversification and reinsurance .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Underwriting Metrics

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)	$115.5	$136.6	$148.8
Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.61)	$(0.95)	$(0.42)
Gross Profit ($M)	$33.6	$37.5	$63.9
Gross Profit Margin (%)	29%	27%	43%
Gross Loss Ratio (%)	77%	73%	63%
Net Loss ($M)	$(42.4)	$(67.7)	$(30.0)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$(28.9)	$(49.0)	$(23.8)
Gross Earned Premium ($M)	$181.0	$213.1	$226.4

Notes: “Best-ever” loss ratio and margin expansion were enabled by rate adequacy, underwriting precision, and favorable prior period development; revenue growth was driven by higher GEP, ceding commissions, and investment income .

KPIs

KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Customers (end of period)	2,026,918	2,313,113	2,430,056
In-Force Premium ($M)	$747.3	$889.1	$943.7
Premium per Customer ($)	$369	$384	$388
Annual Dollar Retention (%)	87%	87%	86%
Gross Earned Premium ($M)	$181.0	$213.1	$226.4

IFP Mix by Product (scale: $M)

Product IFP	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Homeowners Multi-Peril	$433	$488	$503
Pet	$181	$254	$283
Car	$114	$117	$122
Europe (all products)	$10	$19	$24
Other	$9	$11	$12
Total	$747	$889	$944

Consensus vs. Actuals

S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 were unavailable at the time of this analysis due to access limits. As a result, comparisons to Street consensus are not shown. If you want, I can refresh when access becomes available.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
In-Force Premium (end of period, $M)	Q1 2025	N/A	$997–$1,000	New
Gross Earned Premium ($M)	Q1 2025	N/A	$229–$231	New
Revenue ($M)	Q1 2025	N/A	$143–$145	New
Adjusted EBITDA Loss ($M)	Q1 2025	N/A	$(49)–$(46) (incl. ~$20M CA wildfires)	New
Stock-based Compensation ($M)	Q1 2025	N/A	~$18	New
Capex ($M)	Q1 2025	N/A	~$2	New
Weighted Avg. Shares (M)	Q1 2025	N/A	~73	New
In-Force Premium (end of period, $M)	FY 2025	N/A	$1,203–$1,208	New
Gross Earned Premium ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	$1,025–$1,028	New
Revenue ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	$655–$657	New
Adjusted EBITDA Loss ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	$(140)–$(135) (incl. ~$20M CA wildfires)	New
Stock-based Compensation ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	~$60	New
Capex ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	~$10	New
Weighted Avg. Shares (M)	FY 2025	N/A	~74	New

Context: Management reiterated exit-2026 target for positive EBITDA; guidance includes the estimated ~$20M wildfire headwind .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Prev-2)	Q3 2024 (Prev-1)	Q4 2024 (Current)	Trend
AI/Automation & Efficiency	Introduced “L2” platform; expanded generative AI across ops; OpEx ex growth stable YoY .	Headcount down ~7% YoY with rising IFP; automation driving leverage .	AI + aerial imagery enabled rapid wildfire claim settlements; engineering velocity rising with AI .	Improving leverage and speed.
Growth Spend & Synthetic Agents	Growth spend financed 80% via Synthetic Agents; $26M Q2 growth spend .	Growth spend ~$40M; 80% financed; cash/investments ~$979M .	Q4 growth spend $36M; Synthetic Agents extended to Dec’26 with +$200M capacity; net outstanding $83M .	Accelerating but cash-light.
Car Insurance	Loss ratio improving; expansion plans; cross-sell opportunity .	Car loss ratio improved; mix shift towards car expected; Europe also growing .	Car loss ratio at 83% (Q4 supplement), live in ~8 states (~25% of US pop.); emphasizing cross-sell and telematics-driven pricing .	Building to scale; careful ramp.
CAT Exposure & Homeowners Actions	Announced non-renewals ($20–$25M IFP) to reduce CAT volatility .	Diversification and non-renewals drove loss ratio gains .	CA wildfires expected ~$45M gross losses and ~$20M adj. EBITDA headwind in Q1’25; reinsurance mitigates net impact .	Managing volatility.
Rate Adequacy & Regulatory	Rate earning-in across book; more pending .	Approaching adequacy across lines .	Entering 2025 with rate adequacy across majority of portfolio .	Near target.
Europe	Ongoing growth and diversification .	Increasing contribution; path toward ~5% of book .	Europe IFP up to $24M .	Growing share.
Tech Investment	OpEx ex growth stable; tech dev down YoY in Q2 .	Tech dev expense roughly flat .	Tech dev +3% YoY in Q4; greater automation leverage .	Higher output per dollar.

Management Commentary

“Across the full gamut of our KPIs, the fourth quarter was comfortably our best quarter ever… Q4 delivered an adjusted free cash flow of $27 million… our loss ratio on a TTM basis [was] 73%… Q4 [loss ratio] at 63% is our best result ever” .
“In Q4, excluding growth spend, we were EBITDA positive for the first time… we expect… sustained positive adjusted free cash flow and sequential EBITDA improvement for 2025” .
On wildfires: “Some… loss estimates… were well north of $200 million… about 5x higher than our actual experience on a gross loss basis… These events are expected to lead to approximately $20 million EBITDA impact overall” .
CFO detail: “Gross loss ratio was 63% for Q4… ex-CAT was 62%… prior period development had a roughly 5% favorable impact [gross], ~7% [net]” .

Q&A Highlights

Profitability path: EBITDA positive targeted exiting 2026; GAAP net income positive around 2027, give or take .
LTV/CAC: Roughly 3:1 on average remains a reliable target despite mix shifts; willing to invest up to marginal 1:1 for profitable growth at the margin .
Car ramp: Product currently live in ~8 states (~25% US population), leveraging renters cross-sell and telematics; numerous tests trending “better and faster,” but full-scale ramp awaits robust foundations .
California wildfires: ~850–900 claims; ~90% by count renters; dollar losses concentrated in ~30 large home losses; reinsurance materially mitigates net impact; FAIR plan assessment included .
2025 growth spend and cadence: ~$165M for the year; ~$35M in Q1, higher in Q2/Q3, then down in Q4; ~80% financed via Synthetic Agents .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 were unavailable due to access limits at the time of retrieval; accordingly, we have not shown “vs. consensus” comparisons for revenue and EPS. If you want, I can update this section when access is restored.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Underwriting inflection: Best-ever 63% gross loss ratio and TTM 73% within target range underpin 14-point gross margin expansion to 43% and a 90% surge in gross profit; these trends are anchored by rate adequacy, favorable development, and portfolio actions .
Cash engine emerging: Q4 Adj. FCF +$26.5M and FY24 +$47.6M demonstrate cash self-funding even as growth spend increased; Synthetic Agents reduce cash troughs by financing ~80% of growth marketing .
Growth durability with discipline: IFP +26% to $943.7M and revenue +29%; ADR modestly lower due to homeowners cleanup, but overall retention/growth still strong as mix shifts to pet, car, and Europe .
Car as multi-year driver: Car loss ratio improved (83% Q4 supplement), but management will scale only as unit economics and infrastructure meet targets; cross-sell and telematics should unlock structurally advantaged CAC and pricing as state footprint expands through 2025–26 .
2025 outlook incorporates wildfire headwinds: Q1/FY guidance includes ~$20M adj. EBITDA headwind; management still plans positive Adj. FCF for 2025 and sequential EBITDA improvement, reaffirming exit-2026 EBITDA positivity .
Continued operating leverage: Tech-driven automation is holding fixed costs comparatively stable while the topline grows; Q4 adjusted EBITDA ex growth spend was positive for the first time, signaling path to profitability at scale .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

Revenue growth drivers: increased GEP, ceding commission income, and net investment income .
OpEx dynamics: total operating expense ex-LAE increased to $123.9M (growth spend $36.0M) vs. $90.1M in Q4’23 .
Cash and investments: ~“$1.0B” at Dec 31, 2024 .
Product performance: Pet IFP $283M (+57% YoY), pet gross loss ratio 69% FY24, and cost per claim down to $19 via automation .
Synthetic Agents: facility extended to Dec 2026 with incremental $200M; outstanding balance $83M at year-end 2024 .

Press releases and prior quarters used for trend analysis and narrative context: Q4 press release directing to the shareholder letter , Q3 and Q2 results releases and shareholder letters .

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